Methodology

EUSRM Methodology

The EUSRM is an analytical tool designed to identify and track risks to the EU's semiconductor interests. The Chip Diplomacy Support Initiative (CHIPDIPLO) designed and executes the EUSRM.

21 risks monitored with qualitative updates monthly
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Foreword

This introduction provides a user guide for the EU semiconductor Risk Monitor.

Users are invited to read the CHIPDIPLO-definition of the European semiconductor interests, which is the basis of our risk analysis (see textbox directly below). The EUSRM methodology (in the textbox titled "methodology") explains the set-up of the EUSRM. The methodology also outlines the milestones that CHIPDIPLO has completed since March 2025 to arrive at the EUSRM in its current form.

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The European semiconductor interests

CHIPDIPLO bases its definition of EU semiconductor interest on the EU Chip Act's text. Four terms are central to this document: resilience, security of supply, competitiveness and innovation. Please find the CHIPDIPLO-definition of the EU's two key semiconductor interests below.

Resilience & Security of Supply
The first EU semiconductor interest is to guarantee a stable and reliable supply of semiconductors to producers of components and end-products (both inside and outside the EU), whose products the EU relies on to ensure uninterrupted critical state functions and broader industrial production. semiconductor availability is —often indirectly— essential for the uninterrupted functioning of sectors defined as critical in the EU Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Screening Regulation (2019/452); (e.g., energy, transport, water, health, communications) and production in other critical industries (cybersecurity, aerospace, defense). At the same time, the broader economy relies heavily on uninterrupted semiconductor access. Semiconductor shortages in important commercial sectors (e.g., automotive, and other high-revenue end-users) threaten not only company operations and revenues, but also employment and the wider economic prosperity of the EU.
Threat examples: wars, (semiconductor) export embargoes, and pandemics.
Strengthening measures: onshoring semiconductor production, diversifying import locations, and reducing import dependence on high-risk vendors.
Competitiveness & Innovation
The second EU semiconductor interest is having a competitive and innovative EU semiconductor ecosystem, including semiconductor manufacturers, research technology organisations (RTOs), and other research institutes. After all, being home to a profitable semiconductor industry boosts employment, tax revenues, and the continent's broader industrial-technological-innovation base. In turn, this innovation base can be leveraged to strengthen Europe's military-technological capabilities. The semiconductor industry is one of the most R&D intensive sectors in the world. In order to sustain and/or expand Europe's semiconductor industry and RTOs, they must generate sufficient revenue to continuously innovate. In turn, industry needs this innovation to remain competitive/financially solvent in the longer-term.
Threat examples: state-supported foreign competition, critical raw material embargoes, and wars.
Strengthening measures: diversifying supply of resources (e.g., materials), strengthening infrastructure (e.g., energy grids), and expanding the workforce (e.g., educational initiatives and visa liberalisation).
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EUSRM Methodology

1
The EUSRM organises risks in three groups: geopolitical risks (military risks); geoeconomic risks (commercial and technological rivalries); and economic risks (related to the EU domestic economies). These groups are further broken down into six risk categories, each of them featuring individual risks.
2
During an industry workshop (Delphi-method including two surveys, closed-door, eight participants), industry representatives ranked all risks in terms of threat-level to the EU's semiconductor interests. They scored each individual risk on a 0-to-10 scale, in terms of threats posed to the interests of semiconductor end-users (i.e., security of supply & resilience) and semiconductor consumers (i.e., competitiveness & innovation). They also commented on the comprehensiveness of the risk list and were invited to propose additional risks.
3
The EUSRM presents a medium-term Five-Year Risk Projection for each risk (from 2025–2030), focused on: a) a projection whether the risk level has increased or decreased over the past five years, b) a list of indicators that CHIPDIPLO tracks to arrive at our judgement, c) a qualitative assessment justifying the projection for each risk. This projection was completed in September 2025 and should be read as a time-bound assessment; as events and structural conditions evolve, parts of the analysis may become outdated.
4
The EUSRM presents the Monthly Risk Monitor, a nowcasting tool tracking the evolution of each risk each month, providing a risk score (on a 0-to-4 scale) and an overview of events each month that affect the risk score. The Monthly Risk Monitor's vigilance scores are contextualised by the Medium-Term Risk Projection.
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EUSRM design and management

The EUSRM has been co-designed by the Institut Montaigne and the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), and is developed by the Institut Montaigne. Institut Montaigne maintains and develops the Monitor, updates the Monthly Risk Tracker, drafts EUSRM memos, produces the five-year risk projections, and manages the EUSRM portal.

EUISS contributed to the design of the EUSRM methodology and provided advice on several key components, including the definition of the initial risk categories, the development of the five-year risk projection framework (including the selection of structural indicators), and the design of the Monthly Risk Tracker.